XRP (XRP) is staring at a potential drop toward $1.10, as a decline in profitable supply suggests growing bearish momentum and a classic setup for new lows.
Key takeaways:
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XRP supply in profit has dropped to 43%, levels last seen in November 2024.
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Investors have continued selling their XRP holdings, realizing losses at $110 million per day.
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XRP rising wedge breakdown targets $1.10.
XRP supply in profit drops below 50%
As of Tuesday, 43% of all XRP coins were in profit, levels last seen in November 2024, according to onchain data resource Glassnode.
Historically, the metric’s drop below 50% has signaled a transition from optimism to despair characterized by panic selling and high capitulation, as seen in the last stages of previous bear markets.
Related: XRP risk-reward improves as whale accumulation rises: Will price follow?
Between January and June 2022, for instance, XRP price dropped to $0.30 from over $0.75, a decline that coincided with XRP’s profitable supply falling to as low as 20% from just under 50%. A similar scenario was seen in 2018 when XRP price dropped another 70%, with the supply in profit going as low as 15%.
In fact, investors who accumulated XRP above $2 over the last 12 months “have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M–$110M/day since November 2025,” Glassnode added.
In a Tuesday post on X, analyst Crypto Town Hall said this “reflects widespread holder drawdowns, often seen during late-stage corrections,” leading to sharp drops as holders continue realizing losses.
Additionally, the average wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year are down 41% on their investments.
“This is the lowest MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) for XRP traders since the FTX crash in November, 2022,” onchain data resource Santiment said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:
“Significantly negative average returns imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding on to your $XRP positions, due to the fact that competing traders are already in severe ‘blood in the streets’ territory.”
This means fresh selling could be coming as investors seek to cut their losses, a key ingredient in keeping the downtrend going toward the $1.10 target.
XRP rising wedge breakdown targets $1.10
XRP/USD is in the breakdown phase of a rising wedge on the daily time frame, a bearish pattern that forms when price compresses inside two upward-sloping trendlines after a sharp decline.
The price slipped below the wedge’s lower trend line at $1.37 on March 27 and is now attempting a typical post-breakdown retest near the 50-day simple moving average around $1.38. That area is acting as immediate resistance.
If XRP fails to reclaim the trendline and moving averages, the setup points to a deeper move toward the pattern’s measured target near $1.10, roughly 16% below the current levels.
This is close to predictions by Polymarket bettors who price in a 57% chance that XRP price will hit $1.20 before the end of April.
As Cointelegraph reported, if bulls fail to reclaim the moving averages and the price breaks below $1.27, the XRP price risks falling toward $1.11 and eventually to the $1 psychological level.
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